Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach

We examine inflation and uncertainty in the UK with a version of the Markov Switching model, which allows for changes in the variance as well as in the mean and persistence of a series. We find that the UK’s attempts at exchange rate pegs in the form of shadowing the deutschmark and entering the ERM were ineffective, and in the latter case counterproductive in lowering inflation uncertainty. The 1981 budget, however, greatly lowered uncertainty, and the adoption of a formal inflation target also had a palpable, negative impact on inflation uncertainty. As a suggestive exercise, we examine inflation uncertainty in the US, and find that, over 2005–2008, in the absence of an inflation target, uncertainty rose in the US, while uncertainty remained low in the UK over this period of rising commodity prices and financial turmoil.     

A research note on market creation in the pharmaceutical industry

When a firm launches a market-creating innovation, it launches a new product for which there are no close product substitutes. Thus, the new product causes a shift in the existing product-market structure of an industry. This paper reports on the findings of the analysis of 51 large pharmaceutical firms and their market-creating activities. The study suggests that market-creating firms have capabilities in both R&D and marketing. Furthermore, market-creating firms enjoy stronger efficiencies, manage costs better and make more profitable use of their assets.     

Public perception of scientific uncertainty in relation to food hazards

The research reported here aims to understand how people react to statements expressing risk uncertainty information in the context of a commonly experienced potential hazard, food related risks. Public perception of seriousness of risk for themselves, and for other people was examined for different types of uncertainty, for each of five different food hazards. The results indicated that participants responded to the different types of uncertainty in a uniform way, suggesting that perception of risk associated with uncertainty is not affected by the 'type' of uncertainty. The results further indicated that the seriousness of risk, in the presence of statements of uncertainty, was perceived to be greater for pesticides and genetic modification compared to BSE, high fat diets and Salmonella . It was argued that this could be due to the perceptions of low personal control, and high societal responsibility to protect people and societal control over exposure to the potential risks of pesticides and genetic modification. Under circumstances where people feel they have little personal control over their exposure to a particular hazard, and those social institutions that are perceived to be in control of protecting the public indicate that there is uncertainty associated with risk estimates, the hazard may appear to be 'out of control', which is associated with a perception of serious risk.     

Evaluating a method of integrating generic skills with accounting content based on a functional theory of meaning

This paper documents and evaluates an intervention designed to integrate the learning of selected generic skills, particularly analytical thinking and written communication skills, with the learning of accounting content. The method used was to scaffold practice in analytical thinking skills through specially designed writing activities. Content‐focused learning materials adapted from task‐types currently used to teach language skills were used to facilitate the analysis and interrelation of accounting concepts, principles and problems in interpersonal communicative contexts typical of actual accounting practice. The materials, in three assignments, were designed to incorporate: (i) selected generic skills, taken from those listed by the professional accounting bodies; (ii) writing, both as communication and as an instrument for analytical thinking and learning; (iii) knowledge of accounting concepts and principles; and (iv) awareness of the interpersonal dimensions of professional communication. Overall, students showed improved learning outcomes, with improvements of 19 percentage points for non‐Australian students over the three assignments. We were also able to show significant positive relationships between the assessments of assignments 2 and 3 and performance in the knowledge‐based final examination. Improvements in the quality of learning were shown in students’ improved ability to assess their own work.     

郭俊的书画

郭俊，中国书画研究会副会长，中国工艺美术家协会会员，北京民族画院理事，重庆市美术家协会渝中区美协副主席。自幼酷爱书画。广求名师，师从四川美术学院杨富明教授，并得到著名画家苏葆桢、黄纯尧、水华、周北溪等先生的指教。作品继承传统，师法自然，风格别具，     

Drivers’ acceptance of automatic speed limiters: implications for policy and implementation

It has been suggested that speed limiters will have the most impact on vehicle speeds and hence road safety in general. Whilst it is technically feasible to develop a functional speed control system, it may be more difficult to design a system that drivers actually wish to use. It is essential that drivers’ acceptability towards speed limiters is gauged in order to establish the most effective way to implement the system. The research reported here used a variety of techniques to evaluate acceptability and concluded that although drivers perceive speed limiters to be effective in reducing accidents, there is a need to change perceptions about possible impacts on comfort and safety.     

SPLIT RATINGS,BOND YIELDS,AND UNDERWRITER SPREADS

A split bond rating occurs when Moody's and Standard & Poor give different ratings to the same issue. We examine 1,277 public industrial bond issues, where 221 have split ratings, issued from 1980 through mid-1993. For split-rated industrial bonds, neither rating agency consistently gives higher ratings. Earlier studies find yields for split-rated bonds to be priced as either the higher or the lower of the ratings. We find the yields on split-rated bonds to be an average of the yields on the two ratings. Split ratings for industrial bonds appear to reflect random differences on the part of rating agencies. Our results differ from previous studies because we use a substantially larger sample and include high-yield bonds. As long as a bond has an investment-grade rating, the underwriter fees are found to be essentially the same for all rating categories. Below investment grade, the rating substantially affects the underwriter fee. Thus, split ratings for high-yield bonds have an important effect on the underwriter spread.     

Research and development (R&D) beyond manufacturing: the strange case of services R&D

The share of business research and development (R&D) expenditure stemming from the services sector of the economy has been growing rapidly in many (though not all) OECD countries, according to official statistics. The same data sources also indicate, however, that services contribute less to R&D than would be expected given their large shares of employment and output in national economies. In part, incomplete sampling of services in R&D surveys may lead to some underestimation of their R&D activity, but this is unlikely to account for their apparently poor performance. This paper draws on an analysis of existing statistical sources, and on interviews and workshops with service firms' managers. It finds difficulties associated with the ways in which R&D has been operationalised in survey questions. Examination of survey questionnaires suggests that the formulation of these questions, focusing on technological R&D and ruling out much social scientific R&D, disproportionately reduces the reporting of R&D by service firms. But beyond this, the R&D concept itself has some problematic features where it comes to documenting innovation in service firms. This was investigated through a programme of interviews and workshops with service firms, where a lack of familiarity with the R&D concept and R&D management practices was found to be commonplace. R&D performance and innovation activities vary across services of different sorts, even though most service subsectors appear to be low R&D investors. It is thus important to examine services' innovation patterns and processes, to establish what types of R&D‐like activity are underway in these subsectors. While some modification in R&D measurement would be desirable to capture services' activities, effort to understand the non‐R&D elements of services innovation is also important – for management and for policy (given that governments are seeking to create R&D incentives and targets for services and other sectors). There are grounds for expecting (a) services' share of business R&D to continue to grow; (b) this share to continue to be well below what would be expected from the prevalence of services in economic activity, and (c) for many services' innovation to continue to rely heavily on sources that are not directly associated with R&D.